Roll Call's Election Preview

A quick update that just reinforces, what most of us already know, it sure looks like it is going to be a photo finish in August and November.

Roll Call
Election Preview
Tennessee
Senate Open seat:
Bill Frist (R) is retiring
Outlook: Leans Republican

As expected, the GOP primary contest between former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker and ex-Reps. Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant has turned into a nasty affair that's only likely to get worse in the next three months.

Hilleary and Bryant have fought over which one is the "real" or "better" conservative in the race, although they appeared to reach a gentleman's agreement recently to focus their efforts on painting Corker as too moderate instead of attacking one another.

Corker has a wide financial advantage in the contest, all money that he needs to buy the name identification that both Hilleary and Bryant still have from their failed 2002 statewide bids.

A recent independent survey showed Hilleary leading the field, but Corker's support had surged in the wake of a statewide ad campaign he launched in late April.

Corker's ability to get on TV and define himself before either of his opponents gives him an advantage in the contest, but it remains to be seen whether it will trump the grass-roots support that both Hilleary and Bryant have built.

As the Republicans have been fighting, Rep. Harold Ford Jr., the presumptive Democratic nominee, has been busy traveling the state, raising national money and airing a series of statewide campaign commercials.

But Ford has his own hurdles, not the least of which are the fact that he's running in a state that has steadily trended toward the GOP and the high-profile legal troubles of his family members.

Ford is a telegenic and energetic campaigner, and most strategists believe he is the only Democrat who can win this open seat this year.

Due to the late primary, this race isn't likely to get engaged until September, a factor some believe will benefit Ford - although with his uncle now scheduled to go on trial for corruption in October, it's safe to say there are too many unknown factors in this race at this point to get a good handle on its eventual outcome.